Can Carlos Alcaraz break the records of the great tennis players?

The Big Three of men’s tennis — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic — dominated the sport for much of the 2000s. None had won more than 14 men’s Grand Slam singles titles before going on to win 20, 22 and 24, respectively. They soaked up so many records and so much of the sport’s history that it’s a wonder they left any of it for anyone else.

And yet Carlos Alcaraz has already conquered new territory. After winning the 2022 US Open — becoming the youngest player in 32 years to do so — he became the youngest player ever to be ranked No. 1 in the ATP rankings, at the age of just 19 years and four months. He’s gone on to win another Slam, and another, and another.

His victory at the French Open in June made him the youngest man to win Slams on all three surfaces (hard, grass and clay). When he won his second Wimbledon title a month later, he became the youngest man in the Open era to win the “Channel Slam” (the combination of the French and Wimbledon in one year). And if he wins the 2025 US Open or Australian Open, he will become the first person ever to win five Slam titles before his 22nd birthday. (Winning the Australian Open would also make him by far the youngest man to win a career Slam.)

The Big Three have twisted history, but Alcaraz is making a big deal of it. It’s impossible to look at his achievements to date and not begin to visualize his path to 20-plus Slams. But before Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, such achievements would have been unthinkable. They’re largely obsolete and out of the game: Federer retired, Nadal looks set to do so soon, and while Djokovic is still going strong, he’s 37 and in the midst of his least successful season in years. (Although, for Djokovic, “least successful” still includes a Slam final and an Olympic gold medal.)

Alcaraz seems to be the standard bearer for the future of the sport. This is fitting, as his game is a futuristic mix of Djokovic’s speed and agility, Nadal’s passion and Federer’s shotmaking.

But what accomplishments are actually possible — and reasonable to expect — in a post-Big Three universe? And what stands in the way of Alcaraz’s ability to make an all-time career run?

Injuries and cautionary tales

It was only three years ago that Alcaraz made his first big breakthrough, reaching the quarterfinals of the 2021 US Open at the age of 18. That year, he won matches at all four Slams, hinting at potential all-surface and best-of-five prowess. And a year later, he survived epic five-setters against former US Open champion Marin Cilic and American Frances Tiafoe, before defeating Casper Ruud in the final to win Slam No. 1.

In the years since, Alcaraz’s body has occasionally failed him. He missed the 2023 Australian Open with a hamstring injury; then, after splitting straight sets with Djokovic in the French Open semifinals, he suffered full-body cramps and quickly dropped the final two sets. He defeated Djokovic in an incredible 2023 Wimbledon final, and he battled through a forearm injury to win the French Open and Wimbledon this summer. When it comes to Alcaraz’s quest for a massive career Slam total, his biggest enemy may be his own body. His physical, all-out style of play seems to push the boundaries at every turn, and he occasionally breaks down. (Of course, Nadal has pushed boundaries and broken down, too, and still found time to win 22 Grands.)

However, when we look at other successful young players, we find another hurdle for Alcaraz to overcome. As incredible as the Big Three have been in terms of talent and adaptability, they have also been extreme outliers when it comes to sustained successOthers who saw success at Alcaraz’s level at Alcaraz’s age could not sustain it.

Besides Alcaraz, four other players have won four Grand Slam titles before the age of 22: Ken Rosewall, Bjorn Borg, Mats Wilander and Boris Becker.

Rosewall’s story doesn’t really apply: he’s from the 1950s, before the Open, and he probably would have won 16 to 20 Grand Slam titles if he hadn’t had to choose between winning Grand Slams and making real money. There are similarities between the other three titles, though.

Borg was unlike anything the tour had seen when he burst onto the scene at age 18. He won his first French Open title in 1974, repeated in 1975, and then won Wimbledon in 1976 and 1977. He had won four Slam titles just a month after his 21st birthday, winning the French Open and Wimbledon every year from 1978 to 1980. He won a sixth French Open title in 1981, but his motivation quickly waned. The tour began trying to enforce minimum entry requirements just as Borg was looking to play fewer tournaments. He lost in the final of the 1981 US Open and never played in a Slam again. He announced his retirement at age 26, and although he made a half-hearted comeback in 1991, he never won another tour match.

When Borg disappeared, his place was taken by another Swede, Wilander. He won the 1982 French Open as an unseeded 17-year-old, defeating four top-five opponents. He won the Australian Open in 1983 and 1984, and then defeated John McEnroe and Ivan Lendl to win the 1985 French Open, his fourth Grand Slam, a few months before his 21st birthday. His top form was otherworldly, but he was not consistent enough to reach the top of the ATP rankings until 1988, when he rode a reworked serve to three Grand Slam titles in one year. He won his seventh Grand Slam a month after his 24th birthday, but he would never reach a Grand Slam final again. Again, his motivation quickly waned and he was unable to maintain his top level.

Becker was another Wilander-style prodigy who first broke through as an unseeded 17-year-old, riding a booming serve and aggressive play to a shock Wimbledon title in 1985. He defended his title in 1986 and, after a few shaky seasons, won the last two Slams of 1989, taking Wimbledon and his first US Open. He won the 1991 Australian Open for his fifth Slam title at age 23 and was good enough to be ranked No. 1 for a few weeks in 1991, but he reached only two more Slam finals after his 24th birthday.

We have no reason to doubt Alcaraz’s motivation. The tears he shed after his Olympic final loss to Djokovic and his minor meltdown in Cincinnati at least suggest he still cares deeply. But the stories of Borg, Wilander and Becker at least remind us that this story is only just beginning.

In total, 13 men have won at least four Grand Slams before their 23rd birthday, and only four of them (Nadal, Pete Sampras, Borg and Rosewall) have finished with more than seven. Using the Big Three as a model could help Alcaraz pursue long-term goals, but he is still in the early stages of his pursuit.

Growth opportunities

Beyond their extraordinary levels of motivation, perhaps the greatest collective trait that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic boasted was sheer adaptability. No one can match Djokovic in that regard, but all three have adapted and changed their games to get back to the top of the pack.

Perhaps the scariest thing about Alcaraz is that despite what he has accomplished, he still has clear opportunities to improve. He sometimes takes unnecessary risks, which makes him incredibly fun to watch, but also costs him points and makes certain sets harder.

While his forehand is superb and his return game is among the best in the world, he is more likely to settle for backhand slices than his two current main rivals. According to match charting data from Tennis Abstract, he has sliced ​​18% of his backhands over the past year, compared to 16% for Djokovic and just 7% for world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. He also has arguably the least effective backhand of the bunch.

Meanwhile, his serve is just okay, not great. Among the current ATP top 50, here is his ranking over the past year in key service statistics:

— 13th in service points won (67.6%)

— 14th in service games won (85.8%)

— 28th in break points saved (63.6%)

— 34th in first service points (72.8%)

— 45th in ace percentage (5.9%)

Alcaraz’s service numbers are similar to those of the 21-year-old Djokovic: Djokovic won 73.7% of his points on his first serve in 2008 and 67.7% of his points on all serves, holding 86.8% of the time. However, Djokovic’s transformation into the greatest of all time was partly due to his vast improvement in this area.

While Alcaraz is as good as anyone at longer rallies, he still only wins a good-not-great 52% of short points (1-3 strokes), compared to 53% for Sinner and 55% for Djokovic. These may not seem like huge differences, but every percentage point counts in this sport, and a few extra big serves and easy points can transform an elite player into an all-time great.

The 2024 US Open and Beyond

Nadal (3), Djokovic (1) and Federer (0) had a combined four Slam titles to their name by the time they were 21, respectively, at the US Open. Alcaraz has won four on his own. And while he didn’t have to contend with a top-age Big Three (plus Andy Murray, if you prefer the Big Four nomenclature), he still had to deal with a still-vibrant Djokovic, an older generation of physical Slam champions (Daniil Medvedev) and finalists (Alexander Zverev, Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini) and a rising crop of younger stars that includes not only Sinner – who enjoyed a huge breakout form in early 2024 – but six other players aged 23 and under who have broken into the top 25. He has reached at least the semifinals of six of his last seven Slams, and is 4-2 in semifinals and 4-0 in finals. In total, he has won 42 of his last 45 Grand Slam matches.

The success of the Big Three has made surpassing their achievements much more of a marathon than a sprint, and the burnout rate of previous young stars with Alcaraz-level performances is a reminder that Alcaraz’s race is still in its early stages. But he has delivered historic performances nonetheless, and his trajectory will determine the extent to which we reset our expectations after the Big Three era.

For the third consecutive Slam, Alcaraz and Sinner have drawn on the same side of the US Open pool, meaning they will both have to beat their main young rival in the semi-finals and Djokovic in the final. Three-time US Open finalist Daniil Medvedev, who beat Alcaraz in last year’s semi-final, is Also on the side of Alcaraz-Sinner, so just like at Wimbledon, Djokovic was shown a favour here in a number of areas, perhaps enough to become the big favourite.

Yet we’ve reached the point where any loss to Alcaraz, especially in a big match, is shocking. He’s withstood pressure, beaten Djokovic multiple times, and has become the light of the sport. The journey may only just have begun, but it looks like it’s going to be a fun one to follow.