ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Review, Map and Update August 24, 2024

Key conclusions of the ISW:

• Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian military targets in the Russian rear are essential to weakening Russian military capabilities across the theater. By lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons, Ukrainian forces could strike a wide range of key targets that support Russia’s war effort.
• An unnamed senior Biden administration national security official is reported to have said that Ukrainian strikes with Western-supplied weapons on targets inside Russia would be ineffective because the Russian military has redeployed military aircraft from Russian air bases near Ukraine. However, this assessment ignores the way Russian forces use deep rear sanctuaries inside Russia for a wide range of infrastructure beyond airfields to support military operations against Ukraine.
• However, the redeployment of Russian air assets from Russian air bases within range of ATACMS does not detract from the usefulness of ATACMS use against other Russian military targets.
• It is not necessary for Ukrainian forces to strike every Russian military and paramilitary object in Russia within range of Western-supplied weapons to impose significant operational pressure on the Russian military.
• Recent successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets within ATACMS range with home-made precision weapons demonstrate that Ukraine still needs to conduct strikes and that lifting US restrictions could help achieve that.
• Some U.S. officials estimate that the Russian military will likely have to withdraw significant troops from Ukraine and/or operational reserves to push Ukrainian troops off Russian territory.
• Ukrainian forces continued their offensive operations in the Kursk salient on August 24, with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces making any significant progress.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on some of the objectives of Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region on August 24.
• Ukraine and Russia carried out the first exchange of prisoners of war since the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast.
• Russian troops have recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Officials in the Kursk region announced the creation of the BARS-Kursk volunteer division on August 24, stating that the division will fight exclusively in the Kursk region.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan and George Barros.

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