9 Keys to a Week 5 Fantasy Football Win

Fantasy Football analyst Sal Vetri highlights his keys to victory in Week 5.

The pick up and play is… Dontayvion Wicks

Wicks will see a bigger role in Week 5 with Christian Watson out. In Week 4, when Watson left with an injury, Wicks led the Packers with a 25% target share. In all, he saw a team-high 13 targets and converted it into a 78-yard, two-touchdown performance. Wicks was clearly a priority target for Jordan Love in Week 4.

As of early 2023, Wicks ranks fifth in fantasy points per route, according to Jacob Gibbs. He’s a talented receiver who will now see more snaps in a strong Week 5 matchup. Wicks will face the Rams, who are allowing the most passing yards per game this season. Three different receivers have totaled more than 130 yards against LA this season. You can start this week with confidence with Wicks.

The best spot of the week is from…Brian Thomas Jr. vs. IND

He quietly ranks 12th as a rookie this season. Thomas has earned at least 10 fantasy points in three of four games this year and has two top-20 finishes during this stretch. This is impressive considering his QB is struggling. Trevor Lawrence ranks 32nd in the NFL in completion percentage, completing only 53% of his passes, only Anthony Richardson was worse.

Thomas has produced despite this poor QB play and now gets a great matchup. He will face the Colts who have allowed the opposing team’s No. 1 outside receivers to average 100.5 yards per game this season. George Pickens only produced 119 yards against Indy last week. Start with Thomas in week 5.

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The sketchy spot of the week is from… Breece Hall vs MIN

Venue managers have been stressed in recent weeks. Since Week 2, Hall has produced 13.3 fantasy points per game, while his backup Braelon Allen has put up 10.7 points per game. They spread the workload more than expected and in Week 4, Hall gained just four yards on ten carries.

Blocking the Jets’ runs was a big problem. According to NFL Pro, New York ranks 30th in rushing yards per contact this season. That’s not great, and neither is this week’s game for the Jets. Hall will face the Vikings who allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Rookie running backs are averaging just 52 yards per game against Minnesota.

You still have to start with Hall, but temper your expectations this week.

Chase Brown is on the rise

Brown is having his best week of the year. He earned a season-high 42% of Bengals snaps and led the backfield in both carries and production. Brown turned 17 touches into 92 yards and two touchdowns. Most encouragingly, he converted both of his goal-to-go carries from three yards and one yard out respectively.

Through four games, Brown leads the NFL in broken tackles and true yards per carry, according to Player Profiler. He has also seen the fourth-highest number of lightboxes, and this should continue as defenses need to turn their attention to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Brown is trending in this Bengals backfield and he is a player you should trade for if you can.

Rashid Shaheed is on the rise

Shaheed is coming off another strong match. In fact, in many ways this was a major achievement for Shaheed. He earned a career-high 11 targets and converted that into eight catches for 83 yards. According to Fantasy Points data, Shaheed leads the Saints through four games with a target share of 32% on first read.

But what is most encouraging to me is how the Saints use it. We get more than just downfield usage. Shaheed sees a lot of targets in the middle of the pitch that allows him to catch and run into space.

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A key play from Week 4 was the 3rd and 3 in the third quarter. Shaheed was moved by the formation and Derek Carr rolled out and hit Shaheed for a six-yard gain and a first down. We didn’t see this kind of usage from Shaheed last season. He is on a big rise after his zero-point performance in Week 3.

Travis Etienne Jr. shows a downward trend

Etienne’s role is becoming a concern. In Week 4, he made a season-low 51% of snaps and just 45% of backfield carries. It is important to note that Etienne had to leave the match a few times in the first half due to a shoulder injury. But even taking these missed shots into account, this was still Etienne’s worst usage of the year.

Backup Tank Bigsby was back and healthy in Week 4. He has now seen his normal role in two games this season, not limited by injuries. In both matches he defeated Etienne on the ground. Bigsby now ranks second in the NFL, averaging 8.2 yards per touch on his 21 carries this season. Etienne ranks 36th with an average of 4.6 yards per touch.

This Jaguars offense needs playmakers right now. Coach Doug Pederson’s job could be on the line in Week 5. Expect him to play against his most productive players and right now Bigsby is one of those guys. Try to trade Etienne away if you can.

The must start of the week is… Rome Odunze vs. CAR

Odunze is coming off a bad match. He had just one catch for 10 yards in Week 4 against the Rams. But this wasn’t his fault. The Bears’ passing attack struggled because of their offensive line. Caleb Williams didn’t have time to throw, meaning no Bears receiver got over 25 yards in Week 4.

But this week is the perfect recovery spot for Odunze. He will face the Panthers, who rank 31st in pass rush through four games, according to PFF. Williams should have plenty of time to throw and Carolina is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game, according to NFL Pro.

One more thing: Keenan Allen returned from injury last week, but Odunze still played for him in most of the two-WR sets. Start this week with Odunze.

The low of the week is… Jaxon Smith-Njigba

According to PFF, he currently ranks 22nd in expected fantasy points per game, but only 32nd in actual points. This means that his role is great, but the points are not yet coming. Sometimes these expected points don’t matter if your offense or QB is bad, but that’s not the case for Smith-Njigba. Seattle ranks 11th in EPA per play offense and Geno ranks second in completion percentage, completing 72% of his passes, according to NFL Pro.

Smith-Njigba achieved a target share of 23% in Week 4. It is the second time this season he has achieved at least 23% of targets. This is an offense I want pieces of, and Smith-Njigba is the most affordable piece with upside. His upcoming schedule against the Giants, Rams and 49ers twice is attractive.

Buy low on Smith-Njigba and send someone like Brian Robinson Jr. or Tony Pollard ahead of him if you can.

The recovery of the week is…Najee Harris vs. VALLEY

Harris was bad last week. He earned just 19 rushing yards on 13 carries. But this needs more context because the Steelers didn’t have three starting linemen. Not only that, but Harris entered Week 4 with an injury. His production was poor in the field, but this context is necessary.

Fast forward to this week as Harris takes on the Cowboys. This is a strong game at home, with Dallas allowing the second-highest EPA per rush attempt this season, according to NFL Pro. Harris will get 20 chances per game this season. He struggles with efficiency, but the usage is too good to ignore, especially during fantasy bye weeks.

Start Harris, who may see an increased workload if Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson don’t play in Week 5 due to injury.