7 Best Positions, Props, and More for Week 1, Including Ravens at Chiefs

The NFL has decided not to phase anyone into the regular season.

The best possible matchup for the traditional Thursday night season opener with the reigning Super Bowl champions was the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Instead of saving that AFC championship game rematch for later in the season, the NFL scheduled it for opening night. Let’s go.

Below you can see the betting corners for week 1, with all the spreads and odds from BetMGM.

Thursday Night: Lamar Jackson is Great as an Underdog

That number may be more telling of Jackson’s incredible career: The Baltimore Ravens have been underdogs 14 times with Jackson at quarterback and are 12-2 against the spread, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.

Despite that history, this is a pretty tough place for Baltimore to start the season. The Ravens are 3-point underdogs in a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won a Super Bowl last season, beat the Ravens in the AFC championship game, and they look even better on paper this season. The Ravens are working on the induction of new defensive coordinator Zach Orr after Mike Macdonald took over as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, and figuring out Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in your first game is a tough task.

Week 1 surprise lineup: Steelers at Falcons

We all know Mike Tomlin doesn’t have losing seasons. Got it. But the Steelers offense had a pretty bad preseason. And while it’s the preseason, they were also trying to figure out their quarterback situation and a new scheme with coordinator Arthur Smith. They just looked bad. And despite that, they’re only 3-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.

If you think the Falcons’ new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is rusty, nursing a torn Achilles and hasn’t played at all in preseason, that’s fair. It’s just surprising to see a much-improved Falcons team only have to commit one field goal at home.

The People’s MVP Pick: CJ Stroud

The most tickets for a player in the NFL MVP market at BetMGM are on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. In that market, 12.1% of bets are on Stroud, who has odds of 11-to-1 at BetMGM. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever by a quarterback, and many expect him to improve.

Anthony Richardson was also a rookie last season, but the Indianapolis Colts quarterback only played a few games due to injury. When he did play, it was great. Richardson is healthy, as the Colts open the season at home against the Texans, and Indianapolis is a 3-point underdog. The Texans were the hot team of the midseason, but don’t forget how close the Colts came to beating them for the division title, with Gardner Minshew II starting most of the season at quarterback.

The team most often bet on to make the playoffs is one that hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2015 season, went 8-9 last season, and starts a rookie quarterback who was the sixth QB drafted in his class. The Broncos are the most popular selection to make the playoffs among BetMGM bettors. Of all the bets on the Broncos to make the playoffs or not, 97% of the bets are on Denver to make the postseason. The Broncos are odds of +450 to make the playoffs.

Additionally, bettors love more than 5.5 wins for the Broncos.

While Bo Nix has looked good in preseason, that’s preseason. We’ll see if he can replicate that starting in Week 1 against the Seahawks. The Seattle crowd is loud and new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is a master of defense. Seattle is a 6-point favorite.

Prop of the Week: Tony Pollard Receiving Yards

We didn’t see much of the Tennessee Titans’ new offense in the preseason, but we did get a taste. And we got to see their backs catch the ball.

New Titans coach Brian Callahan will transform the Titans offense. Pollard played just 19 snaps in the preseason, catching four passes for 38 yards. Callahan didn’t show it all, but it makes sense that he’d want Pollard and backup Tyjae Spears involved in the passing game. Pollard looked explosive again in the preseason after a disappointing season.

That’s all why it was surprising to see Pollard’s receiving yardage prop for Tennessee’s Week 1 game against the Chicago Bears at just 10.5 yards. That seems low, based on what we’ve seen this preseason.

In Yahoo Survival Football, 46% of the picks are on the Cincinnati Bengals beating the New England Patriots. While survival pools are based on laments like “That team seemed like a sure thing, how could they lose?”, it seems like the Bengals are the safe bet. We think.

Not every favorite is going to win. Which pick could cause the most chaos? The New Orleans Saints get 10.2% of the picks this week against the Carolina Panthers. Those are from you troublemakers hoping the Patriots pull off the upset. But don’t completely underestimate the Panthers. This is a much better Panthers roster with a new coach in Dave Canales. The Panthers are 4-point underdogs against a Saints team that won’t impress anyone this season. Watch out.

Monday Night: A Fantastic Jets-49ers Game

How much of a lasting distraction will the 49ers contract drama of the past month be? We’ll find out. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams have their contracts, but will they be in peak football shape? Maybe, but we won’t know until Monday night.

The 49ers and New York Jets are off to a tough start to the season. They face off with the Jets as 4-point underdogs. The Jets are well-stocked, they just haven’t been able to show it yet because they’re mired in terrible quarterback play. This season, they’re hoping Aaron Rodgers can last more than four plays. If he can, the Jets are going to do very well. Don’t be surprised if they pull off an upset of the 49ers.