news

6 selections from the weekend’s TV matches

VaselineSeptember 14, 2024

0 6 minutes read

6 selections from the weekend’s TV matches

EFL Betting Tips

Saturday 12:30 pm

Millwall vs Luton
Less than 2.5 goals
Double Chance: Luton

Leeds vs Burnley
Leeds win nil-0

Oxford v Stoke
Oxford scores the first goal

North of England v Wycombe
Halftime: Draw

Sunday 3:00 PM

Portsmouth v West Brom
West Brom wins and under 3.5 goals

Millwall vs Luton

Less than 2.5 goals
Double Chance: Luton

TV: Sky Sports Football

There is a rivalry in this game which means that it will be a pretty intense atmosphere at The Den this weekend, meaning that a close game could easily develop. Luton have certainly had a bit of a hangover after relegation, so much so that they are still looking for their first league win of the season.

The international break has probably come at a good time to give them a reset. The injuries are certainly healing, which means manager Rob Edwards can expect better things to come. He knows they need to be there in a big game like this on Saturday. The Hatters are fourth in the Championship for expected goals, so the key is simply to take more of their chances.

Millwall should still be riding high after their excellent 3-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday before they retire for international duty. However, they are a team that would not have wanted the break, meaning they are no sure thing to back that up.

They failed to win either of their opening games after last season’s international breaks, and they face a rather injured, talented opposition desperate for a first league win of the campaign. It will come as a surprise to many if Neil Harris’s side top the league’s Expected Goals chart, but Luton should quickly climb the table once they get going, possibly from Saturday onwards.

Leeds vs Burnley

Leeds win nil-0

TV: Sky Sports+

This clash brings together two of the Championship’s expected promotion contenders this season. Leeds and Burnley occupy two of the four play-off positions this weekend, but there’s a fairly large but somewhat confusing statistic separating them. Yes, Burnley are the joint top scorer in the league, but they have the third-worst Expected Goals tally.

They are seven goals above their xG, which suggests a great deal of fortune. It has also been a rather chaotic end to the transfer window for them, so they may need some time to let things sink in. A trip to Elland Road may be the last game they want now.

Leeds sit third in the Championship xG rankings, meaning they are creating significantly better chances to score than their opponents on Saturday. That could make the difference on the day, plus the fact that Daniel Farke’s side remain solid defensively.

The Whites have kept three straight clean sheets, including two wins, while Burnley by comparison have just one in all competitions. No team has kept more clean sheets in this competition than Leeds last season and given the attacking talent they still possess, it is no surprise that they have won games without conceding a single goal. Scott Parker’s men have conceded just three league goals so are themselves tough to break down, but a close encounter should be won by the hosts.

Oxford v Stoke

Oxford scores the first goal

TV: Sky Sports+

A two-win, two-loss comeback is a decent start to life in the Championship for Oxford, with both victories coming at the Kassam Stadium, which is likely to be their main source of points this season as they look to avoid a direct return to League One.

Manager Des Buckingham has bigger ambitions than just survival though, and even in their two away games they have only managed a one-goal margin. So far they look more than up to the mark and will be looking to take three points from Stoke. United always look to get out of their pitfalls quickly at home, knowing how important home advantage is to them.

Steven Schumacher will also be more than aware that his Stoke team have scored just one first-half goal in the league this season. They are trying to force their way into games and are prioritising not conceding goals, which can be risky, especially at Oxford, where they are still riding high after promotion.

The visitors are actually favourites to take all three points this weekend, which is a surprise in one way but also understandable, funnily enough. It’s a tough one to bet on from an absolute perspective, especially as City are a pretty unpredictable beast and have been for a few seasons now. They’re also one of only six teams in the Championship yet to win a league game at half-time, which only adds to their seemingly sluggish start.

North of England v Wycombe

Halftime: Draw

TV: Sky Sports+

It is just one win apiece for Northampton and Wycombe in the league this season, making it all the more important to find a second as soon as possible. Both will see this as a realistic and presentable opportunity to do so. Town are on a three-game unbeaten run in the league, including a home win over Exeter City.

Their only home defeat this season came in the League Cup, against, of all sides, Wycombe. Speaking of Wanderers, they are also three times without a defeat, alone in all competitions for them. The highlight of this period was knocking Championship side Swansea out of the cup, but four points off Blackpool away and Rotherham at home is also a fine comeback.

International call-ups meant the duo had a weekend off last Saturday, giving them at least a few weeks of solid training since they last played. This can go one of two ways: either they get off to a quick start, or they need some time to get back into the swing of things.

There is a good argument that this meeting is not an immediate game-changer, especially as neither team has led at half-time in a League One match this season. Only two first-half goals have been scored between Northampton and Wycombe in the league (both to Wycombe) and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the second period will be far more entertaining from a goalscoring perspective.

Portsmouth v West Brom

West Brom wins and under 3.5 goals

TV: Sky Sports Football

Sunday’s Championship action takes place at Fratton Park, with Portsmouth hosting strong-performing West Brom in a 3pm kick-off. Pompey are still searching for their first win of the campaign after winning the League One title last season.

It goes without saying, however, that they have had a very difficult start in relation to the quality of their opponents. John Mousinho’s side have faced Luton, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Sunderland; on two occasions they have conceded late goals, turning likely victories into draws. They have generally done well in those games, but would accept any form of scrappy victory at this stage.

That is easier said than done, however, as Portsmouth’s difficult start continues, with West Brom reaching the play-offs last season. They have one of the best tactical coaches in the division in Carlos Corberán and are expected to challenge for promotion again. They are unbeaten in the league early this season and they believe their chances of promotion will improve.

The Baggies, who also have the fourth-worst Expected Goals Against record, have conceded just two league goals. If they win, it won’t necessarily be a convincing win, but it will likely be a professional one. Given that Portsmouth also struggle to create chances (fourth-worst Expected Goals) and WBA are keen to just do enough, a low-scoring away win seems the most likely outcome.