4 Jewish Questions for Election Day 2024 and its Aftermath

On November 15, 2022, Donald Trump announced that he would run for president for a third time.

Today, 721 days later, voters will finally choose between him and Kamala Harris. And it could take days longer before we know the winner.

For Jews, it has been a long campaign season filled with endless debates about which president would be better (or, more often, worse) for American Jewry, Israel and those who wish them harm. Many Jews viewed and experienced the campaign through the lens of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the wars the country launched and the wave of anti-Semitism that followed.

As we head into Election Day and whatever else comes next, here are four questions Jews are asking — including the one on everyone’s mind.

How will Jewish Americans vote, and how much will it matter?

This question is asked every four years, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to answer. This time, that could be especially true.

Before 2020, a consortium of leading publications joined something called the National Election Pool, which conducted exit polls and published its assessment of the Jewish vote. For example, in 2016, Hillary Clinton won 71% of the Jewish vote, compared to Trump’s 24% – roughly in line with elections in recent decades.

Last time, the National Elections Pool did not release Jewish results, based on inadequate data, and two partisan groups came to different conclusions: a poll commissioned by Republicans said the Jewish vote was shifting to Republicans, and a poll commissioned by Democrats said this one shifted to – wait for it – Democrats.

What does that mean for this year? With so many states up for grabs, and so much discussion this year about whether more Jews will vote for Trump after the October 7 attack, there are many uncertainties. If there isn’t one authoritative exit poll, you can expect competitive results.

The Jewish vote could have an outsized impact, especially in some of the seven swing states. So if the hundreds of thousands of Jews in Pennsylvania, or the 100,000 or so in Michigan, somehow find themselves unexpectedly bankrupt, it could make a difference. (And if Pennsylvania breaks for Trump, expect renewed criticism of Harris’ decision to override Jewish Governor Josh Shapiro for her vice presidential pick.)

There are some things we do know: On the whole, most Jews will vote for the Democrat (in this case, Harris), as they have for generations. Most Orthodox voters will vote Republican, a more recent shift that has intensified during the Trump era. And some Jewish voters will have voted with doubts they never felt before the October 7 attack.

Will Jewish communities remain safe? Will America?

In October 2020, an FBI official advised Jewish leaders to prepare for “potential volatility, not only with respect to the election, but I think there’s a lot of things going on in the country.”

There was volatility, as we now know. Trump and his supporters waged a campaign to deny and reverse his defeat, culminating in the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. While there were no prominent instances of violence against Jews as part of the riot, anti-Semitic iconography and people with anti-Semitic views were seen. It has also deepened the far right’s persistent anti-government activism, which has manifested itself in the recent anti-Semitic harassment of Jewish officials.

This year, security services are sending a similar message: stay vigilant. They emphasize that there are currently no known threats against Jews or Jewish institutions. But the rise of anti-Semitism, plus sharp national polarization and the potential for uncertainty after Election Day, mean the risk of violence in and around Jewish spaces is increasing.

Once again, Trump has not promised to respect the outcome of the vote. He has also said that if he loses, it will be partly the fault of Jewish voters — a statement that immediately worried Jewish leaders and extremist watchdogs, who interpreted it as a possible boost to Trump’s reluctant supporters.

Security officials note that after more than a year of protests over the Gaza war, the left is also feeling emboldened, adding an element of uncertainty to the climate.

For security groups, this all means monitoring polling stations, some of which are located in Jewish schools or communal buildings; sending guidance to Jewish institutions – one organization recommends a “robust preparedness posture”; and monitoring threats originating from social media.

How will Jewish candidates fare in the down-ballot races?

In addition to the presidency, some 470 seats are up for grabs in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Some of the most high-profile races include Jewish candidates, and even more could be decided by Jewish voters.

One of the most prominent races is for governor of North Carolina, where the Jewish attorney general, Democrat Josh Stein, faces Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, a Republican whose campaign has seen scandal after scandal for his past comments, including herself a “Black NAZI.” Stein is heavily favored to win, even though the state is a battleground for the president.

Jews are also running in a number of Senate elections — from shoo-ins like California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff to competitive campaigns like Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen’s in Nevada or Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s in Michigan. These two races are among the handful that will jointly decide who controls the Senate.

Dozens of House races also involve Jewish candidates. And in some districts, the Jewish vote could be decisive. That’s especially true in New York, where candidates in three closely contested districts with large Orthodox populations have made extensive efforts to secure the support of leading rabbis and their followers.

So, now, who’s going to win?

Nate Silver doesn’t know. Nate Cohn doesn’t know. And neither do we. (Allan Lichtman says so.)

But whoever wins, it will define the Jewish story in the United States, Israel and beyond. In the days after the election is decided, the president-elect will appoint a cabinet and staff, almost certainly including some Jewish names. Policies will be introduced that dismay and delight various segments of American Jews. It is unlikely that the examination of words and gestures will cease during the campaign. The divisions within our communities are unlikely to disappear.

And while it’s not clear when these elections will take place, or whether their results will be accepted, one timeline is all but certain: Election Day 2028 is just 1,462 days away.