2024-25 Fantasy Basketball: 4 Centers Who Will Break Out This NBA Season

In the final chapter of our fantasy basketball breakout series, we shift our focus to the centers who will shine this season. After covering the breakout guards and forwards earlier this week, I identified four big men who haven’t finished in the top 70 yet but are set to have careers in fantasy basketball. Let’s get into it.

Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons

Okay, I definitely predicted Jalen Duren would break out last year. And him friendly of did. He is one of four players in NBA history to average at least 13 points and 11 rebounds per game before turning 21. Duren also significantly improved his free throw shooting, increasing his average by 18% from his rookie year.

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So you’re probably wondering why he’s back on my list. Well, it falls just below my top 70 threshold for pimples.

The Pistons have made significant changes to their front office, coaching staff and roster that will accelerate Duren’s development. Looking at how new Pistons head coach JB Bickerstaff used Jarrett Allen gives some insight into what to expect from Duren – more minutes and some (insert expletive) defense!

Duren had the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the league last year despite averaging less than 30 minutes per night under Monty Williams. Knowing that Jarrett Allen averaged 32 minutes per game over the last four seasons under Bickerstaff should be music to Duren’s ears. More minutes generally equal more production, so a bump in scoring and rebounding is looming.

Additionally, JB Bickerstaff has built the Cavaliers into a top-10 defensive unit under his reign, which should bode well for Duren. Duren’s defense was abysmal last year, dropping from the 60th percentile in blocks and steals in his rookie campaign to the 36th and 15th percentiles, respectively. With a more coordinated defensive effort, we can expect a stock spike. Finally, he continues to make progress as a playmaker, seeing his assist percentage increase from 6.8% to 12.7% last year.

Duren is currently in the fifth round of checkers. While it’s a reasonable price tag, I expect Duren to see an increase in his scores, recoveries, and stock prices that will outperform his ADP by at least one round.

Isaiah Hartenstein – C, Oklahoma City Thunder

The former Knick was paid handsomely in free agency while joining one of the best teams in the league. The Thunder had the best record in the Western Conference last season, but were knocked out of the playoffs in the Western Conference semifinals. The Thunder strengthened their frontcourt by adding Hartenstein, one of the best rebounders in the league on a per-minute basis.

Hartenstein was phenomenal for New York last year, finishing the season with the following marks in the league’s top 10, according to Basketball Reference:

• 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage

• 2nd in offensive rating

• 3rd in defense zone plus-minus (DPM)

• 5th in defensive rating

• 5th in total offensive rebounds

• 8th in steal percentage

Hartenstein was a beast for category competitions, finishing 74th overall, but would have been higher had he taken the central role from the start. That’s why we’ll see the best version of him this season: the minutes. Hartenstein averaged more than 30 minutes in just one month last year and averaged 8.3 points with 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 3.2 shares per game. That matches his career averages when he plays 30-39 minutes: 9.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.6 shares. He’s also an underrated passer who thrives as a short-roll guy and generates assists from second-chance opportunities in the post.

Hartenstein’s modest seventh-round ADP has value right now, but don’t forget that he is favored in category formats over points competitions as the likely starting point for one of the best teams in the league.

Onyeka Okongwu – PF/C, Atlanta Hawks

Predicting Okongwu’s outbreak has proven futile in recent years. Clint Capela is a fixture in the Hawks’ starting unit, but is time finally up? Capela is entering the final year of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025. Capela’s $22 million expiring deal is an attractive addition to any team in need of help at center (cough, cough, Knicks).

Enter Okongwu, whose new four-year, $61 million deal begins this season — a strong indication that the Hawks are both invested and committed to him, not Capela.

So what can we expect from Okongwu if Capela is moved – or if the Hawks release Okongwu?

In his career as a starter, the fifth-year big man is averaging 11.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 2.6 shares (1.9 blocks + 0.7 steals) with a 13% usage rate. Solid production. Still only 23 years old, there is an upside to selecting Okongwu in the 10th drafts round.

He finished 72nd in nine categories in 2022-23, despite coming off the bench in 62 of the 80 games he played that season. There’s a more high-profile role coming up, so don’t be surprised if he flirts with a double-double and puts up the best numbers of his young career.

Jalen Smith – PF/C, Chicago Bulls

The Bulls brought in Jalen Smith on a three-year deal that could be a steal if Chicago can trade Nikola Vučević. The former 10th pick of the 2020 NBA Draft was a bench piece for the Pacers and did not log 20 minutes per night over the past two seasons. However, Billy Donovan’s system is ideal for the athletic, floor-stretching big man.

At Bulls media day, Billy Donovan hammered home the need to play faster and pick up the pace to generate more shot attempts and threes. Last year, Smith was limited to just 61 games, but here’s how his advanced stats stacked up in 17 minutes per game:

With the Bulls so focused on the guards and emphasizing Pace, Smith is in a position to see an increased role. Smith can play power forward or center, so with Nikola Vučević declining and Patrick Williams slowed by injury, Smith should be part of the rotation immediately.

Smith’s emergence will take some time, as the Bulls will undoubtedly present Vučević for a trade, but that doesn’t mean Smith won’t play at least 20 minutes per game. He has proven to be effective in limited minutes, and once there is enough room to embrace the youth movement, Smith will be in a prime position to get the most minutes and opportunities of his career. He’s a plus-rebounder, efficient shooter from the midcourt to the three-point line and, with limited size and depth in the frontcourt, he’s a player whose stock is higher this offseason — and officially on breakout watch.